One Day, Satoshi's Coins Will Move

An on-chain analysis estimating how much of the oldest bitcoin sits in quantum-exposed form. It puts roughly 1.72 million BTC in Satoshi-era pay-to-public-key (P2PK) outputs, where the public key is published directly on-chain and so is among the most exposed to a future quantum attacker.

For market context, the author benchmarks what it would mean if those coins moved — comparing the supply to a year of peak profit-taking from prior cycles, and arguing the market has historically absorbed comparable flows. Those are the author's interpretive estimates, not predictions, and they bear on the economic side of a migration rather than the cryptographic one.